For much of the past few years, recruitment leaders have been waiting for convincing evidence that the market is beginning to turn.
September may have given us the strongest signal yet.
Permanent placements have increased for the first time since September 2022, while temporary billings have now grown for five consecutive months. Business confidence is also strengthening, services growth has accelerated and manufacturers are increasing employment at the fastest rate for more than two years.
The pattern is important.
Temporary and contract recruitment improved first as employers looked for flexibility. Permanent hiring now appears to be following.
This does not mean recruitment has suddenly become easy. Vacancies remain subdued, candidate availability is high and some sectors continue to face difficult conditions.
But the evidence of recovery is becoming broader.
Investment is also creating opportunity across AI infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, defence and energy. A £300 million AI investment in Lanarkshire is expected to support more than 3,400 jobs, almost £130 million of automotive investment will support more than 1,800 skilled roles, and defence-supported employment increased by 26,000 jobs in a single year.
For recruitment leaders, the lesson is not simply that the market is improving.
It is that different markets are moving at different speeds.
The businesses best positioned for the next phase will be those identifying where investment is flowing, where skills shortages are intensifying and where their consultants have the expertise and relationships to capture that growth.
The question is shifting from:
‘When will recruitment recover?’
To:
‘Where is growth happening first, and are we positioned to benefit?’
MARKET SIGNALS BEHIND THIS VIEW
KPMG/REC: Permanent placements rise for the first time in nearly four years
Permanent placements returned to growth, while temporary billings increased for a fifth consecutive month.
Lloyds Business Barometer: Confidence climbs to 53%
UK business confidence reached its highest level since March, with economic optimism continuing to improve.
UK Manufacturing PMI: Hiring strengthens
Manufacturers increased employment at the fastest rate for more than two years.
UK Services PMI: Growth reaches strongest level since April
The UK services sector strengthened again in August, supported by improving domestic demand.
£300m Lanarkshire AI Growth Zone
Investment in AI infrastructure is expected to support more than 3,400 jobs across technology, engineering, construction and related disciplines.
£130m next-generation vehicle investment
Government and industry investment is expected to support more than 1,800 skilled jobs in advanced automotive manufacturing.
Defence-supported UK jobs increase
Defence expenditure supported 26,000 additional UK jobs in a single year, including substantial growth in manufacturing.
Government Jobs Guarantee
The programme is expected to create more than 90,000 funded employment opportunities by 2029.
£28m energy storage programme
Investment in long-duration energy storage is opening further opportunities across engineering, R&D and specialist technical recruitment.
AI and UK employment
Lloyds reports that 54% of UK businesses surveyed say AI has already created new roles within their organisations.
✅ Missed the last Greenshoots Live session?
You can still catch up by clicking here to watch the recording.
✅ Want to join the next one live?
Our next Greenshoots Live session features Marc Jarvis, from Bullhorn.
Next month, we’ll be sharing more practical insight from across the Talence world, including fresh thinking on AI, leadership, and what meaningful change in recruitment really looks like. We’ll also be spotlighting upcoming events, podcast conversations, and more tools and ideas designed to help recruitment leaders stay ahead with confidence.
Ready to take the next step? Explore the Talence podcast for practical insight, browse our blogs for fresh thinking on recruitment, leadership, and AI, follow us on LinkedIn for regular updates, and take our diagnostic to see where your business stands today and where the biggest opportunities may lie.
Warm regards;
Ian Knowlson
Director, Talence
