Growth Is Broadening - And the Market Is Giving Recruiters More to Work With
Oct 09, 2026October brings some of the most encouraging recruitment evidence we have seen this year. Bullhorn reports UK commercial openings up 22% year-on-year in Q3, permanent job orders strengthened again in September and REC data shows active job postings 10.4% higher than a year ago. At the same time, major investment programmes across automotive, rail, AI, defence and energy are creating tangible future demand.
The important change is not that every part of the market is suddenly growing. It isn't. It is that the areas of opportunity are becoming clearer. Manufacturing and industrial facilities, logistics and construction are all showing stronger hiring activity, while technology demand is increasingly being reshaped around AI, data and cyber. For recruitment leaders, this makes the market more readable and therefore more actionable.
There are still softer signals in the wider economy, so this is not a call to abandon caution. But Greenshoots exists to identify where growth is emerging before it becomes the consensus view. October's message is positive: more markets are moving, investment is flowing and recruiters prepared to follow that investment have a growing number of opportunities to pursue.
Top Job Creation & Investment Stories
1. National Wealth Fund: 130,000 Jobs to Be Created and Supported by 2030
The Government says the National Wealth Fund will use its existing capitalisation to create and support a further 130,000 jobs across the UK by 2030. The areas highlighted include AI and technology, defence and clean energy.
For recruiters, this matters because these are not isolated hiring campaigns. Investment of this type creates demand through entire supply chains - engineering, project delivery, digital, construction, skilled trades, manufacturing and specialist professional services. It reinforces a recurring Greenshoots theme: follow where long-term capital is being committed.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-backs-young-people-into-work-by-supporting-jobs
2. More Than £1bn of Automotive Investment Announced in Seven Days
More than £1 billion of investment was announced across Bentley, McLaren and Nissan in a single week. Bentley has completed a £350 million programme at Crewe that helps secure around 4,000 jobs, while McLaren's £500 million expansion is expected to create 1,000 new UK jobs by 2032.
The wider recruitment opportunity extends beyond automotive production. Advanced manufacturing, engineering, electrification, software, quality, procurement, supply chain and project management all stand to benefit as manufacturers modernise UK operations.
3. £1bn British-Built Train Programme Supports Almost 6,000 Supply-Chain Jobs
Around £1 billion is being invested in 29 new battery-electric trains for the North, supporting more than 350 jobs at Alstom and almost 6,000 jobs across the wider UK supply chain.
Large rail programmes create sustained recruitment demand well beyond train manufacturing. Electrical engineering, maintenance, project delivery, digital systems, procurement, specialist manufacturing and infrastructure supply chains should all benefit. For recruiters, these long-cycle projects offer the opportunity to build strategic client relationships rather than simply respond to short-term vacancy spikes.
4. Fusion Investment Reinforces the Long-Term Energy Opportunity
The UK-US fusion partnership brings together fusion, AI and advanced computing expertise. The wider UK fusion programme includes a record £2.5 billion commitment, with government saying associated nuclear and fusion initiatives will help deliver more than 10,000 UK jobs.
Energy has appeared consistently throughout Greenshoots because it combines investment with genuine skills scarcity. Scientific, engineering, digital, construction, project-management and specialist contractor demand is likely to build over many years rather than a single recruitment cycle.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-us-fusion-strike-partnership-to-accelerate-clean-energy
5. Cornwall Lithium Investment Builds Another UK Growth Supply Chain
Geothermal Engineering Limited is investing around £43 million in a new lithium project in Cornwall, supported by government funding. The project is expected to support more than 100 jobs and strengthen a domestic critical-minerals supply chain serving automotive, clean energy, AI and advanced manufacturing.
The direct job number is relatively modest, but the strategic significance is greater. Critical minerals sit upstream of several priority growth industries. Recruiters specialising in engineering, geology, environmental disciplines, operations and project delivery should watch how this supply chain develops.
Recruitment Market Indicators
6. Bullhorn: UK Commercial Openings Rise 22% Year-on-Year
Bullhorn's Q3 Market IQ analysis provides one of October's strongest signals. UK commercial openings increased 22% year-on-year, reversing the weakness seen earlier in 2026.
The detail is even more interesting: manufacturing and industrial facilities rose 44.7%, logistics 28.5% and construction 13%. Quarter-on-quarter openings also increased strongly across all four commercial categories measured. For recruitment leaders deciding where to deploy consultants and business-development effort, this is highly actionable intelligence.
Source: https://www.bullhorn.com/uk/insights/weekly-insights/
7. Permanent and Temporary Job Orders Both Move Forward
Bullhorn's September Hiring Outlook reports permanent job orders increasing 3% month-on-month, ahead of the recent monthly average, while temporary orders increased by around 2%.
Temporary and contract recruitment have led much of the recovery during 2026. The encouraging development now is that permanent recruitment is beginning to participate more consistently. If that continues through the final quarter, it would represent an important broadening of the recovery.
Source: https://www.bullhorn.com/insights/hiring-outlook/
8. REC: Active Job Postings 10.4% Higher Than a Year Ago
The REC Labour Market Tracker recorded almost 1.7 million active job postings in August - 1.8% higher than July and 10.4% above August 2025. New postings were also 3.6% higher year-on-year.
Importantly, active postings increased across every UK Government Office Region. That does not mean every local market is equally strong, but it provides useful evidence that improving recruitment activity is not restricted to one city or region.
9. REC JobsOutlook: Employer Hiring Confidence Improves
REC's latest JobsOutlook shows employer confidence in hiring and investment improving by six percentage points, while perceptions of the wider economy improved by eight points. Short-term permanent hiring intentions remain positive at net +8%.
Medium-sized businesses are particularly interesting, recording some of the strongest intentions across permanent and temporary hiring. That matters for independent recruiters because these organisations can often move more quickly than large corporates when confidence and demand return.
Sector Growth Watch
Technology: The Recovery Is Being Reshaped by AI
APSCo and CV-Library report 126,861 technology vacancies in Q2 2026, up 4.3% year-on-year. But the headline number hides a much bigger structural change. AI Engineer postings increased 74.4% year-on-year in permanent hiring and 96.3% in temporary hiring. AI-related roles now account for a growing share of technology demand.
For technology recruiters, the question is therefore not simply 'Is tech back?' The more useful question is which skills are becoming critical as organisations invest in AI, data, cyber security, cloud and digital infrastructure. Agencies aligned to those areas are likely to experience a very different market from firms waiting for a broad recovery in traditional IT hiring.
Source: https://uk.apsco.org/q3-technology-sector-overview-cv-library
Manufacturing & Industrial: October's Standout Growth Market
Manufacturing and industrial facilities openings rising 44.7% year-on-year is one of the strongest sector movements Greenshoots has reported during 2026. The investment announcements in automotive, defence, energy, rail and AI-related infrastructure reinforce the same direction of travel.
This creates opportunities across engineering and production, but also in quality, procurement, supply chain, project management, technology and commercial functions. Recruiters should think about the whole investment ecosystem rather than only the obvious frontline roles.
Source: https://www.bullhorn.com/uk/insights/weekly-insights/
Logistics & Construction: Investment Is Feeding Demand
Logistics openings increased 28.5% year-on-year in Bullhorn's Q3 data, while construction openings rose 13%. General construction conditions remain mixed, but infrastructure, data centres, energy, industrial facilities and transport programmes continue to generate demand.
For specialist recruiters, this is an important distinction. The opportunity is not necessarily 'construction' as one market; it is the funded projects and specialist supply chains sitting inside it.
Source: https://www.bullhorn.com/uk/insights/weekly-insights/
A Balanced View - Recovery Remains Selective
Not every indicator is yet positive. ONS vacancy estimates remain subdued and Lloyds Business Barometer recorded weaker confidence in September amid heightened global uncertainty. However, Lloyds' confidence reading remains above its long-term average, while faster recruitment indicators from Bullhorn and REC show activity strengthening in important parts of the market.
That apparent contradiction is useful. It tells us this is not a conventional rising-tide recovery. Businesses with funded projects, international exposure, structural skills shortages or investment programmes can be growing while other organisations remain cautious. For recruiters, understanding that difference is commercially far more valuable than relying on a single national headline.
Turning Intelligence into Growth
The October evidence gives recruitment leaders something more valuable than general optimism: it gives them places to look. Growth is increasingly clustering around investment, infrastructure, technology change and scarce skills. The commercial opportunity is to turn that intelligence into action before the wider market catches up.
Follow the capital. Map the organisations and supply chains benefiting from automotive, rail, defence, AI infrastructure, clean energy and advanced-manufacturing investment.
Re-segment your client base. Identify which clients have funded projects, expansion plans, international growth or skills shortages. Those accounts deserve disproportionate business-development attention.
Move before the vacancy. Ask clients what projects are being approved, where investment is going and which capabilities they expect to struggle to find. Build relationships and talent pipelines before hiring accelerates.
Challenge consultant deployment. If adjacent markets are growing by 20%, 30% or 40% while an existing desk remains flat, consider whether consultant time and market focus still reflect where opportunity now sits.
Build specialist credibility. Recruiters who understand the projects, technologies, skills and commercial pressures shaping a growth market are far more likely to become trusted advisers rather than interchangeable suppliers.
October Takeaway
October strengthens the case that the recruitment market is moving from isolated greenshoots towards broader, although still selective, growth. Commercial openings are rising, permanent and temporary job orders are improving, active postings are well ahead of last year and substantial investment is creating long-term demand.
The opportunity is not to wait until every economic indicator turns positive. It is to recognise where growth is already emerging, position the business around it and move before competitors do.
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